Where we think policy is heading, written down with a date and the signpost that would prove us right. When we're wrong, it stays on the page, struck through. Being checkable matters more than being right.
Each prediction is scored only on documented evidence: statute, official announcement, Budget text or court ruling. Misses stay on the page.
Empty-home takeover (the council takes over the running of a long-empty home; the owner keeps ownership): the threshold is cut to 6 months by regulation, then exemptions (second homes, homes for sale) are narrowed
Logged · Last checked
What would tick it
SI laid amending SI 2012/2625; consultation on exemptions
Monitoring documented for Covid, Prevent, asylum hotels only
#8bOPENPREDICTION
No declassified assessment or evidence of Russian interference in the 2016 EU referendum is published by 31 Mar 2027, despite the PM's 'clear answer' claim; the claim is instead used to back counter-interference and online measures
Logged · Last checked
What would tick it
Published assessment, ISC report or minister's written answer; bust if a declassified assessment is published by 31 Mar 2027
Logged 13 Oct 2026. Burnham on The Rest is Politics, 12 Oct 2026; No 10 and Doughty row back the same day; Badenoch and Davey asked for the evidence, the PM did not commit (BBC 12 Oct 2026). ISC Russia report HC 632 (Jul 2020): no post-referendum assessment made
#9OPENOUR READING
UK lets inflation run above target to erode government debt ('inflating the debt away')
Open, and watched closely: no official signal yet.
Logged · Last checked
What would tick it
BoE tolerating persistent above-target CPI without tightening; Treasury/DMO shifting issuance to shorter or index-linked gilts; fiscal rules or OBR forecasts relying on inflation for debt reduction; official remit change
Logged 4 Oct 2026; no official statement yet. Context (5 Oct check): CPI 3.1% Aug, open letter triggered; MPC projects ~3.75% Q4 2026 and just over 4% Q1 2027, but held at 3.75% on a 6-3 vote with 3 for a hike, so no tolerance signal yet (ONS CPI Aug 2026, 16 Sep; BoE MPC minutes 16 Sep 2026). DMO 2026-27 remit unchanged since Apr revision: shorts 38.6%, linkers 9.3% (dmo.gov.uk). Next: CPI 21 Oct, Budget/remit 28 Oct
#10OPENPREDICTION
US moves first to inflate away its debt, and other countries including the UK follow: a rush out of government bonds and cash into hard assets ('a bank run in reverse')
Open, and watched closely: no official signal yet.
Logged · Last checked
What would tick it
US: Fed cuts while inflation is above target, Treasury shortening issuance, yield-curve control or Fed pressure; then the same steps from the BoE, ECB or BoJ; gold and bitcoin rising alongside long-bond selloffs; restart of QE (central bank bond buying, i.e. money printing) by the Fed or BoE, or the BoE halting its gilt sales (QT)
Logged 4 Oct 2026. Fed hiked to 3.75-4% on 16 Sep 2026, so it is currently tightening, which counts against this for now. Watch Fed 28 Oct, US CPI 14 Oct. Context (5 Oct): BoE paused APF gilt auctions and halted long-dated market sales on 17 Sep 2026, before this was logged, so not a tick (bankofengland.co.uk market notice 17 Sep 2026). Note (5 Oct, not a tick): market odds of an Oct Fed hike reportedly fell from ~70% to under 20% in a week (market commentary, 3 Oct); US Treasury lifting bill auction sizes while the Fed's bill holdings grow (secondary report, unverified against TreasuryDirect)
#11OPENPREDICTION
The reset playbook: high taxes on wealth, money printing, new money paid to the population (wages/transfers) not the rich, debt shrinks, gold and bitcoin rise, tokenised assets handed down to lower earners
Open, and watched closely: no official signal yet.
Logged · Last checked
What would tick it
(a) new UK wealth or asset taxes beyond the mansion tax; (b) QE restart; (c) direct payments or wage subsidies funded by the central bank; (d) gold and BTC hit new highs during (b); (e) a government scheme distributing tokenised assets or shares to citizens
Explore the detail
Logged 4 Oct 2026. Only (a) has a live signal (mansion tax threshold briefing, Sep 2026). Note: (e) runs opposite to the earlier 'tokenisation = centralised control' thesis, so watch which way it breaks. Editor's view (4 Oct): both can be true, sequenced over time, with distribution first and control later or vice versa; log the dates of each so the timeline decides
What the labels mean
OPEN predicted, no official signal yet.
MOVING official signal, not law yet.
TICKED enacted, shown by primary evidence.
BUSTED ruled out or reversed. It stays on the page, struck through.
Every label on the site is explained in the labels key.
